Friday, January 18, 2008

A Couple More Things

Mitt Romeny is a blue blood. His family is deep like the Kennedy's or Roosevelt's. His family has been in government for some time. There are claims of polygamy in the tree, since his family has been in the Mormon church since at least 1843 (This is the year Miles Park Romney was born, and since he was born in the Mormon town of Nauvoo, IL I assume he was there as a Mormon) it is not all that unlikely, maybe fact, but I am too lazy to check it right now, wow I feel just like a real news reporter.

Mitt Romney also named his son Tagg.

Michigan Minute

This is coming so late that it is hardly worth posting, but something is better then nothing.

Michigan was make or break for Former Governor Mitt Romney, and make he did. John McCain managed an admirable second place rolling along after his New Hampshire win and Huckabee in the rear. Romney needed the win in Michigan because it is the state of his boyhood home. His father George was elected three times as Governor. George also ran for president, but his bat shit insanity kept him from getting the Republican nomination. Yeah, thats the plot of the Manchurian Candidate in case you didn't quite get it.

Mitt needed the win in Michigan so badly that rumor was a loss there would have led to him leaving the campaign trail altogether. Not sure how real that was, but he won so it doesn't matter.

McCain, though impressed me. He stood in front of crowds in Michigan, a state with a 7.4% unemployment rate, and said, "Your jobs, are gone, and those jobs are not coming back." Needless to say that is a tough sell, but credit is due, cause its the truth and you gotta have some big balls to say it. It was this type of character that make McCain so likable among independent and swing Democrats. If he manages to carry on well he is probably the only candidate in the Republican field who could win the White House in '08.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Whatever Happened to Momentum

The shift of focus from Iowa to New Hampshire happens so fast that most candidates are already in New England before all the Iowa votes are counted. The successful in Iowa at least wait until after they give their victory speeches before they leave, others never even show up in the state to see the results, and it is not without reason that they leave Iowa so quickly.

The caucus process has large flaws for both parties. The Republican straw poll is non-binding for the delegates who go to the Republican Convention, and the Democratic Caucus skews results in favor of two or three front runners, and leaves other candidates appearing to be unelectable. These flaws are exasperated by mainstream media over-simplifying the results. Whether you agree with the importance of the Iowa caucus or not the end result is irrefutable, and candidates who win head off to New Hampshire buoyed by the results or trying to unchain themselves from them.

The Zogby/Rueters/CSPAN tracking poll puts Clinton in a slight and shrinking lead, while Huckabee is so far in third that see appears to need a miracle to win. Over in the Manchester Union Leader's Suffolk poll the Dems appear the same while Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee is in 5th place trailing Ron Paul!

Where is the momentum? Got me, but I can tell you that Huckabee is in big trouble right now. He is currently dragging Chuck Norris around New Hampshire, and I just watched the former governor actually introduce the action hero! Huckabee introduced his prop! Not very presidential.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Caucus Night

The scene is Theodore Roosevelt High School in north west Des Moines, Iowa. Thousands of voters gather to cast their vote for the nominations of both major parties, and it is a zoo.

Voters queue up in the halls to register both to vote, some for the first time, and to change party affiliation, which is allowed right up to tonight. The process is chaotic but the voters remain upbeat, despite the wait.

Into the caucus rooms they pile. I am in a small cafeteria with over 400 people. Three hundred and seventy five voters, ten caucus officials and a score of print and video journalists. The Caucus chair takes the microphone and begins with a poorly received speech about the political viability of Iowa voters and the caucus system. His speech is the vocal reflection of the nervousness about the shift in Iowa's importance. It seems the caucus goers don't care, they just want to get started.

Another parliamentary motion and a new caucus chair is nominated. Despite an obvious vote of confidence for the nominee the current chairman demands a vote count. The crowd boos him down and the new chairwoman takes the floor. The former chairman sulks away yelling, "Now you're in for some real problems." Bitterness aside the caucus is ready to begin.

Each candidates supporters are assigned an area in the room to stand. The the voters have 15 minutes to align themselves accordingly. During the first alignment voters can choose any candidate they like. Depending on the number of voters each candidate gets here will determine the overall viability of the candidate, and whether he or she will remain "on the ballot" in successive alignments.

The voters move quickly to their locations and favorites quickly become apparent. My estimations before the count are Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and undecided. Each candidate has an organizer whop attempts to get an accurate count of their voters. It appears insane but they count hands or have the voters sound of one, two, three...

My estimation is a little off as the Richardson group and the Edwards group are so close together their members blend in. Obama is clearly their first alignment leader, but Edwards is a strong second. The Edwards supporters cheer. With 80 members they have easily cleared the 15% mark needed for viability and will now be a player in the second round where they stand to pick up members from the less popular groups.

Obama's camp holds 112, and Clinton's 61. Richardson's camp comes 4th with 45, only ten shy of viability. Biden and Dodds people begin to discuss where they will go as they are many short of contention and the Kucinich people, almost immediately cast their lot with Obama, even before the second alignment is called.

The organizers report into the chairwoman and the second alignment is announced. Five minutes is given to re-align. The Edwards group is closed off from most of the delegation by the Richardson group, whose organizer is standing on a table above the din calling on his members to petition with the nearby Biden and Dodd groups to pitch in with them. He recounts and is still short. Recounts a second, then a third time. The Edwards people remain quiet out of respect for the Richardson effort, but finally it is too much. The begin to yell and wave the Richardson supporters over.

The Richardson leader concedes, he takes a substantial group with him to Obama, (rumor has it Richardson had directed his supporters to do so if they did not have enough votes). Another group mergers with the nearby Edwards group and they erupt in cheer.

In the opposite corner, the Obama camp has swelled to a massive amount. They begin chanting "What do we want CHANGE! Who do we want OBAMA!" Meanwhile the Clinton group is conspicuously quiet and inactive. They add on a few new members but there is little attempt to convince any of the voters to join them. Their lack of effort shows as they only increase by a 13 members by the final count. The Clinton supporters are so lethargic they make no attempt to challenge Obama supporters who poach the fringes of their camp trying to convince the Clinton waverers to come to Obama's side.

The second count is in and the Edwards camp is overjoyed, they have increased to 116. Clinton's lack of effort is shown in her week 74 voters, and the Obama camp, which now occupies nearly half of the cafeteria has the remaining 186 voters.

Big cheers erupt from Edwards and Obama groups, but again the Clinton's remain quiet, perhaps stunned by the result.

The chairwoman takes the floor and recalls order. She assigns the precincts 6 delegates according to the second and final alignment results. After which the hall quickly empties. Only a few die hard political activists remain. They will be voting on the platform committee members which are arguably more important then the nominating delegates themselves.

As I leave I here a BBC newsman remark, "Hell of a way to pick a president." Maybe, but it sure makes for good TV.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Almost

It's less then 48 hours until the caucuses start, and things are about as clustered as they ever were. The Dems are still bunched into what amounts to a three way tie with Edwards gaining points today, and the Repub candidates remain in the same positions with some slipping by front runner Hukabee and gains by Romney and McCain. These numbers come from the Zogby/Rueters/CSPAN tracking poll released this morning.

As I said in my last post, turnout tomorrow will be the key. I recently found out that the Iowa Republican National Committee does not do any "Get Out the Caucus" promotion. They rely completely on local caucus organizers to get folks out. The lack of effort by the GOP shouldn't be seen as ennui after all their caucus is really a "straw poll." The republican delegates in Minneapolis are not bound to vote for anyone in particular by the Iowans they represent. Instead they look at the results of their straw poll and use it as a guide.

Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party is expecting a record turnout. Currently the weather is forecast uses bitterly cold to describe caucus night temperatures. Last night I walked less then a block when I realized my gloveless fingers went numb. The Des Moines River which flows pretty swiftly past my hotel has been slowly freezing over during the past few days. The weather has come up as the biggest concern for caucus attendance.

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Thursday the Des Moines Register released its final tracking poll placing Obama in a the lead.

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Mac McKay appeared on the Washington Journal and made a very interesting comment. "The smartest thing Hilary could do would be put his (Obama's) name behind her, and run as Clinton Obama '08....A lot of Republicans I have talked with are scared of that."

I can only assume that Mr McKay is not as conniving as to boost for a Clinton/Obama '08 ticket because he has some super secret plan to take them down. I think that this ticket would actually be trouble for an already troubled Republican Party. Also he made this comment just after he said, "We want Hilary Clinton, because we can beat Hilary Clinton." I think that the Republicans do feel that they can beat Hilary in '08. I don't think they can beat anyone in'08, but I do think they would love a chance to beat her up and might even manage to keep the election close if she gets the nomination.

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