Slack

Pics from Pennsylvannia

The Capital Building in Harrisburg, site of the April 20th Obama rally. The staffers the next day said about 7500 people attended, my guess was about 3,000; but I am really bad at estimating crowds. This pick was taken about one hour before the event so don't judge the numbers by it.


The rally ballroom. Nobody here but us chickens.

The Spew.

Is It Over Yet?

The atmosphere outside the Park Hyatt on Broad Street downtown Philadelphia is like a circus. Obama supporters crowd the media strip waving signs and banners, chanting and carrying on. It is hard to tell if they are trying to garner support for their candidate or jeering the Clinton supporters who are arriving at their post poll party.

The media is here in full force. Dozens of satellite and microwave trucks line the street, spewing cables, and equipment cases onto the sidewalks and side streets. This is big, but how big is anyones guess.

If Sen. Clinton wins commandingly then she proves to the super delegates that she is a viable winner for the nomination convention. If Sen. Obama wins the state then he would expand his lead and could begin to put real pressure on Sen. Clinton to bow out of the race. While both of these outcomes are possible they are unlikely.

The most likely outcome right now is that Sen. Clinton wins the state by 4 to 6%, while Sen. Obama wins the major cities, particularly Philadelphia by a commanding lead. If things play out this way then both candidates will continue to campaign. Neither able to deliver a death blow to the other they will slog through Indiana, North Carolina, and the others until August.

Since I am at the Clinton post poll party, then Clinton will win tonight. This is not based on an science, but my own track record. I have only covered winning candidates on primary night so far, Clinton in Columbus, Huckabee in Little Rock and Des Moines, and Romney in Michigan. Each night the victories were suprises, even Romney's since I really thought he would lose his own home state. Maybe my lucky streak will end tonight, but the exit polls show Sen. Clinton is in the lead and Obama has already left the state.

Tell a friend.

The Keystone Kerfuffle

Three days from now the citizens of Pennsylvania will cast their ballots and decide who they would like for the Democratic nominee for the 2008 presidential election. This is it. The big one. No one thought things would go on this long and no one in PA at least expected to have their votes count so much.

If I had to guess, I would say the mood is upbeat, but the Clinton and Obama campaigns have begun to slow. The last several Obama speeches have been lacking in the energy that was so prevalent in his earlier events. Clinton too seems to be struggling. Her press has gotten much worse since the Texas/Ohio primaries. The fatigue has extended beyond the two democratic candidates, the press and public are both becoming bored.

Despite the Gibson/Stephanopoulos shenanigans at the recent ABC sponsored debate, the media as a whole is growing bored with the on going campaign. To be fair though, they have focused on the campaign for longer then they have focused on anything else in recent history. Now though it seems they would like to get Obama the nomination and move on to the presidential campaign.

Polls put Clintons lead here in PA at less then 10% and Obama closing everyday, but she seems likely to win. With the fatigue what it is though, I expect the media to begin to apply more pressure to the loser to step aside. I don't know what that will mean to Obama, since up to now he has been the media darling, while Clinton has faced the brunt of the step aside suggestions.

Clearly if Clinton wins in PA she would definitely have a very strong case going into the convention. Even with a win here though Clinton is unlikely to win any of the remaining primaries with the possible exception of Indiana.

Unless there is a dramatic upset Tuesday and Obama manages a win in Pennsylvania the media and public are going to have to get over themselves, because it seems they will have to deal with campaigning until June 3's final primaries.

Tell a friend.