Is It Over Yet?

The atmosphere outside the Park Hyatt on Broad Street downtown Philadelphia is like a circus. Obama supporters crowd the media strip waving signs and banners, chanting and carrying on. It is hard to tell if they are trying to garner support for their candidate or jeering the Clinton supporters who are arriving at their post poll party.

The media is here in full force. Dozens of satellite and microwave trucks line the street, spewing cables, and equipment cases onto the sidewalks and side streets. This is big, but how big is anyones guess.

If Sen. Clinton wins commandingly then she proves to the super delegates that she is a viable winner for the nomination convention. If Sen. Obama wins the state then he would expand his lead and could begin to put real pressure on Sen. Clinton to bow out of the race. While both of these outcomes are possible they are unlikely.

The most likely outcome right now is that Sen. Clinton wins the state by 4 to 6%, while Sen. Obama wins the major cities, particularly Philadelphia by a commanding lead. If things play out this way then both candidates will continue to campaign. Neither able to deliver a death blow to the other they will slog through Indiana, North Carolina, and the others until August.

Since I am at the Clinton post poll party, then Clinton will win tonight. This is not based on an science, but my own track record. I have only covered winning candidates on primary night so far, Clinton in Columbus, Huckabee in Little Rock and Des Moines, and Romney in Michigan. Each night the victories were suprises, even Romney's since I really thought he would lose his own home state. Maybe my lucky streak will end tonight, but the exit polls show Sen. Clinton is in the lead and Obama has already left the state.

Tell a friend.