Catching Up Part 1

I think I might have to be a bit more careful with what I am doing. It seems that when I read back over my notes I might be trying to hard to find gotcha moments, not trying hard enough to learn something. In any case, I have two whole days worth of exciting Iowa Updates for y'all.

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Day three of the trip and day one of actual events covered by me. The first live Washington Journal hits from the CSPANs deluxe studios located in the Des Moines Embassy Suites Penthouse, featuring the comic stylings of Mike Glover, Dianne Bystrom, Chuck Launder, Scott Brennan, Ted Sporer, Steve Scheefler, and your hosts Peter Slen and Steve Scully, and as always featuring your favorites, The CSPAN Callers!

Mike Glover, Iowa political correspondent for the AP, spoke about what the candidates need to do to transfer the poll numbers into votes. "Turn out, turn out, turn out, and if I can say it again turn out, turn out, turn out," is the key to getting elected. You see its one thing for an Iowa voter to pledge support, express interest, even to campaign or a candidate, but if they don't show up at the caucuses then none of that matters. Unlike primaries there is no absentee ballot so night workers or Iowa ex-pats can't cast a vote. This strategy is not unfamiliar to candidates with election experience, but in a field this large, and this close so near the actual caucus day, turn out will be key.

Ted Sporer another journalist and son of both a former Iowa Democratic and Republican Committee Chairs was perhaps the most interesting speaker of the day. His spot also came after I had breakfast so I might have paid him more attention because of that, but just the same the Romney supporter had some good points.

The Republican field is much to close to call at this point. Huckabee holds a slight (1%) lead over Romney. McCain a more distant third. Sporer felt that McCain, Thompson and Giuliani would battle it out for 3rd place. The three of them have largely ignored Iowa, although they all have active campaigns in the state.

This made sense to me since the later three candidates have the biggest national names. While Romney is no joke nationally, and Huckabee is becoming more well known since his Iowa surge, Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson have a more national feel to their candidacy. They hope to hold out past the caucus and even past New Hampshire and South Carolina, waiting for the larger groups of primaries.

A win on Super Tuesday would effectively guarantee them the nomination if only they can maintain the money and interest until then. A third place showing in Iowa without much effort could be enough to sustain them, and since they haven't spent a lot of money to get it, then all the better. On the other hand if Huckabee or Romney were to suddenly and surprisingly slip to third place it would be the beginning of their campaigns slow deaths.

Meanwhile on the Democratic front Clinton, Obama, and Edwards duke it out for first. Clinton holds a 4% lead over Obama and a 7% lead over Edwards. The rest of the Democratic field of candidates is large they are also largely not viable. Sorry Biden fans, he's not getting elected.

This is something that I don't understand though. Biden, Richardson, and Dodd all have an incredible amount of experience. Experience is the biggest stumbling block for Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. If that's so, then why aren't these guys running stronger in the polls. It must have to do with how their campaigns are organized. I can't answer what that is without a more clear understanding of campaigning work.

Despite the Zogby/CPSAN/Rueters poll results, Sporer felt that Clinton was not doing well in Iowa. He complimented the effective rigidity of her campaign, but cast doubts on her general sincerity. Sporer commented that Iowans will find out if you plant someone in the audience. Since the audience is usually members of the local community plants are easier to detect. "Its the beauty of the caucus system," Sporer said.

Other polls show how close the race has been up to this point.

Click on Steve Scheefler's link above and you can get the gist of what he is about.

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One guest was very averse to me touching them. They seemed actually repulsed by proximity to me. Very odd.

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I promised to get two days worth in here, but as I get rolling that seems very difficult. I'll have to give an account of Sundays guests later. Still I will need to double up posts one day.

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Tell another friend.